Last Modified: 2011 October 9
Joe Schlobotnik / joe@amurgsval.org
URL for this frameset: http://www.slack.net/~whelan/tbrw/tbrw.cgi?1998/pairwise.980126.shtml
Note that these calculations were done, and this piece written, before I learned that Mankato State is in fact eligible for the NCAAs, and included in all parts of the selection procedure.
Okay, so the word from the NCAA is that games involving Mankato State and Nebraska-Omaha do not count for the NCAA Tournament selection procedure, and so with a bit more confidence we begin this week's dry run through the procedure. Once again, the selection criteria have been calculated using game results from the Division I Composite Schedule on US College Hockey Online. The ratings percentage index thus calculated jibes with USCHO's current RPI as of Sunday night.
We have 24 Teams Under Consideration this week, with the following pairwise comparisons:
Team PWR RPI Comparisons Won
1 Mich State 23 .593 NHNDBUMiMmYaWiBCCgSCOSNENMLSCrCkPvFSNtCCPnRPML
2 New Hampshire 21 .626 __ NDBUMiMm__WiBCCgSCOSNENMLSCrCkPvFSNtCCPnRPML
3 North Dakota 21 .617 ____ BUMiMmYaWiBCCgSCOSNENMLSCrCkPvFSNtCCPnRPML
4 Boston Univ 20 .621 ______ MiMmYaWiBCCgSCOSNENMLSCrCkPvFSNtCCPnRPML
5 Michigan 19 .589 ________ MmYaWiBCCgSCOSNENMLSCrCkPvFSNtCCPnRPML
6 Miami 18 .588 __________ YaWiBCCgSCOSNENMLSCrCkPvFSNtCCPnRPML
7 Yale 17 .552 __NH________ Wi__CgSCOSNENMLSCrCkPvFSNtCCPnRPML
8 Wisconsin 16 .580 ______________ BCCgSCOSNENMLSCrCkPvFSNtCCPnRPML
9 Boston Coll 16 .572 ____________Ya__ CgSCOSNENMLSCrCkPvFSNtCCPnRPML
10 Colgate 14 .555 __________________ SCOSNENMLSCrCkPvFSNtCCPnRPML
11 St Cloud 13 .547 ____________________ OSNENMLSCrCkPvFSNtCCPnRPML
12 Ohio State 12 .541 ______________________ NENMLSCrCkPvFSNtCCPnRPML
13 Northeastern 11 .539 ________________________ NMLSCrCkPvFSNtCCPnRPML
14 Northern Mich 9 .537 __________________________ LSCrCkPvFSNtCC__RPML
15 Lake Superior 9 .522 ____________________________ CrCkPvFSNtCCPnRPML
16 Cornell 7 .523 ______________________________ CkPv__NtCCPnRPML
17 Clarkson 6 .520 ________________________________ PvFS__CCPnRPML
18 Providence 5 .517 __________________________________ FS__CCPnRPML
19 Ferris State 5 .513 ______________________________Cr____ Nt__PnRPML
20 Notre Dame 4 .529 ________________________________CkPv__ CC__RP__
21 CO College 4 .519 ____________________________________FS__ PnRPML
22 Princeton 4 .511 __________________________NM__________Nt__ RPML
23 RPI 1 .488 ____________________________________________ ML
24 Mass-Lowell 1 .500 ______________________________________Nt______
The regular season and tournament champions of each conference are entitled to automatic berths; we can't predict the outcomes of the tournaments, but for the purposes of this simulation, let's say the regular season titles go to the four teams currently leading their conferences in winning percentage: North Dakota, Michigan, Yale and New Hampshire. There's no problem filling out the tourney field, as eight more teams beat all of the other TUCs: North Dakota, Miami, Wisconsin, St. Cloud and Ohio State in the West, and BU, Yale, BC and Colgate in the West. Once again the field of twelve contains seven Western teams and only five from the East, so we move Ohio State into the East before determining which teams to swap. Looking at the comparisons within each region, we have
West East
1 Mich State 5 .593 NDMiMmWiSC | 1 New Hampshire 4 .626 BUBC__CgOS
2 North Dakota 4 .617 MiMmWiSC | 2 Boston Univ 4 .621 __ BCYaCgOS
3 Michigan 3 .589 __ MmWiSC | 3 Boston Coll 3 .572 ____ YaCgOS
4 Miami 2 .588 ____ WiSC | 4 Yale 3 .552 NH____ CgOS
5 Wisconsin 1 .580 ______ SC | 5 Colgate 1 .555 ________ OS
6 St Cloud 0 .547 ________ | 6 Ohio State 0 .541 __________
Based on the comparisons, the byes should be given to Michigan State and North Dakota in the West, and UNH and BU in the East, although tournament wins by Michigan or Yale would change that. Also going by the numbers, we should ship Colgate and Ohio State to the West and Wisconsin and St. Cloud to the East. If we do this:
West East
1 Mich State (C) 1 .593 ND | 1 New Hampshire (H) 1 .626 BU
2 North Dakota (W) 0 .617 | 2 Boston Univ (H) 0 .621
3 Michigan (C) 3 .589 MmCgOS | 3 Wisconsin (W) 2 .580 BC__SC
4 Miami (C) 2 .588 CgOS | 4 Boston Coll (H) 2 .572 __ YaSC
5 Colgate (E) 1 .555 __ OS | 5 Yale (E) 2 .552 Wi__ SC
6 Ohio State (C) 0 .541 ______ | 6 St Cloud (W) 0 .547 ______
Instant disaster! Not only do two CCHA teams (Michigan and Ohio State) play in the first round, but with three non-bye teams from the CCHA in the Western regional, there's no way to avoid a first-round matchup. So clearly we must send at least one CCHA team East and bring another WCHA team to the West regional. Michigan is the host team, so they must stay in the West, and the comparisons say Ohio State should be the one to go East. Wisconsin beats SCSU on criteria, plus they should help the gate in Ann Arbor, so let's take them back to the West to get
West East
1 Mich State (C) 1 .593 ND | 1 New Hampshire (H) 1 .626 BU
2 North Dakota (W) 0 .617 | 2 Boston Univ (H) 0 .621
3 Michigan (C) 3 .589 MmWiCg | 3 Boston Coll (H) 3 .572 YaSCOS
4 Miami (C) 2 .588 WiCg | 4 Yale (E) 2 .552 SCOS
5 Wisconsin (W) 1 .580 __ Cg | 5 St Cloud (W) 1 .547 __ OS
6 Colgate (E) 0 .555 ____ | 6 Ohio State (C) 0 .541 ____
Now we have a good candidate bracket. There is one potential second-round conference matchup in the West (Michigan State-Miami) and one in the East (BC-BU). It's unavoidable that there be one potential intraconference matchup in the West, just given the makeup of the field, but we can fix the one in the East. The Eastern matchup, as we have it now, will occur if BC, the third seed in the regional, beats Ohio State, the lowest-ranked team in the tournament. And with both Eastern byes going to Hockey East squads, changing the seeding of the other four teams in that regional doesn't help avoid it. So if avoiding second-round matchups is important, the committee has to send BC out West, even though the numbers, and potentially the attendance prospects in Albany, argue for keeping them in the East over Colgate. Ultimately, it's a judgement call, but let's assume they do switch the Eagles and Red Raiders, giving
West East
1 Mich State (C) 1 .593 ND | 1 New Hampshire (H) 1 .626 BU
2 North Dakota (W) 0 .617 | 2 Boston Univ (H) 0 .621
3 Michigan (C) 3 .589 MmWiBC | 3 Yale (E) 3 .552 CgSCOS
4 Miami (C) 2 .588 WiBC | 4 Colgate (E) 2 .555 SCOS
5 Wisconsin (W) 1 .580 __ BC | 5 St Cloud (W) 1 .547 __ OS
6 Boston Coll (H) 0 .572 ____ | 6 Ohio State (C) 0 .541 ____
which produces the following brackets:
5W Wisconsin (W) 6E Ohio State (C)
4W Miami (C) 3E Yale (E)
1W Mich State (C) 2E Boston Univ (H)
2W North Dakota (W) 1E New Hampshire (H)
3W Michigan (C) 4E Colgate (E)
6W Boston Coll (H) 5E St Cloud (W)
which have the minimum number of potential conference matchups, one. However, that matchup will occur if Miami defeats the lower seeded Wisconsin. It stands to reason that the matchup will be less likely to arise if it requires a victory by the lower seed. The only way to arrange this is to switch Miami and Ohio State, giving regions of
West East
1 Mich State (C) 1 .593 ND | 1 New Hampshire (H) 1 .626 BU
2 North Dakota (W) 0 .617 | 2 Boston Univ (H) 0 .621
3 Michigan (C) 3 .589 WiBCOS | 3 Miami (C) 3 .588 YaCgSC
4 Wisconsin (W) 2 .580 BCOS | 4 Yale (E) 2 .552 CgSC
5 Boston Coll (H) 1 .572 __ OS | 5 Colgate (E) 1 .555 __ SC
6 Ohio State (C) 0 .541 ____ | 6 St Cloud (W) 0 .547 ____
We can't quite use these seedings straight up; we need to switch the five and six seeds in each region to break up the first-round conference matchups, giving brackets of
5W Ohio State (C) 6E Colgate (E)
4W Wisconsin (W) 3E Miami (C)
1W Mich State (C) 2E Boston Univ (H)
2W North Dakota (W) 1E New Hampshire (H)
3W Michigan (C) 4E Yale (E)
6W Boston Coll (H) 5E St Cloud (W)
Which of these two brackets would the committee choose? Well, it probably depends on what their priorities are. For instance, if they're worried about attendance at the West regional, they might opt for the latter to stuff Yost Arena with Big Ten teams. But if that regional is going to sell out anyway, that's not a concern, and it's just a matter of weighing the reduced likelihood of a second-round matchup against rewarding Miami with a berth in their own region.
If you want to see the reasons why each of the pairwise comparisons turned out the way they did, here they are, but keep in mind that they're replaced every week.